Home' Ships and Shipping : May 2011 Contents Shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) has estimated that
new vessel orders in 2011 could reach somewhere between 70
and 90 million DWT, well down on 2010's 125 million DWT.
"After a very slow year in 2009, with barely 34 million DWT of
tonnage contracted, 2010 was more in line with the boom years
of 2003-2008, but the sharp decline in dry bulk freight rates at
the end of 2010, coupled with the massive deliveries expected in
2011, leaves us to think that demand for new tonnage in this
segment, which has been robust to date, will be significantly
weaker this year," said BRS. "Furthermore, it is feared that the
volumes of tankers and containerships ordered will not
compensate for this deficit.
"The wait-and-see attitude logically adopted in periods of
low freight rates, combined with difficulties securing finance
and the opportunities expected to arise on the second hand
market, could seriously curb owners' appetite for newbuildings.
Conversely, the need to invest in new, high performance
designs that are better adapted to the new economic conditions
(with significantly lower fuel consumption and reduced and
better controlled gas emissions), should generate renewed
demand," BRS continued.
"In the boom years (2003-2008), fuel oil consumption
and, generally, design optimisation were not the subject of
special attention. Shipowners had only one priority, to take
possession of a hull as soon as possible -- sometimes in order to
re-sell it at a profit. Shipbuilders, for their part, could easily in
these circumstances sell their existing designs, and even
"Let us bear in mind that bunkers today comprise an extremely
important element in the overall cost of shipping. For example,
while the one-year time charter rate for a Capesize bulk carrier
(176,000 DWT) increased from US$14,900 to $32,600 per day
between 2002 and 2010, the cost of bunkers increased from $150
to $550 per tonne in the same period. As a result, daily fuel costs,
based on a consumption rate of 60 tonnes per day, have grown
from $9,000 to $33,000. This is without doubt a development that
will retain the attention of the decision-makers.
"Furthermore, savings could also emerge from the
deployment of new dimensions better adapted to future trades.
By removing constraints such as those imposed by the width of
the Panama Canal, and by challenging existing vessel speeds as
in the case of the containerships, shipowners and shipbuilders
will have to make new choices. There is no doubt that the crisis
is going to accelerate this technological evolution. "New
players, in China, India and the other emerging markets could
take the place of the traditional shipowners and could take
advantage of the weaker demand and lower prices now
available," BRS concluded.
'Key Calla' a Sanoyas built, 83,353DWT, 96,121m3 Panamax bulk carrier
delivered in late 2010 -- "By removing constraints such as those imposed by
the width of the Panama Canal, and by challenging existing vessel speeds as
in the case of containerships, shipowners and shipbuilders will have to make
French broker predicts newbuild
bulker orders to fall in 2011
May 2011 SHIPS AND SHIPPING
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