Home' Ships and Shipping : August 2009 Contents BULKER NEWS
In a new 200-page report, Drewry
Shipping Consultants said that the
global orderbook is the biggest in
history, creating a danger of long-term
oversupply in several -- perhaps most --
Drewry said that the situation could be
compared with the large tanker market in
the early 1970s, where a glut of ordering
skewed the market for decades. That
mistake seems to have been repeated in
recent years, only on a wider scale and
across dry bulk and containerships as well
Drewry has established three likely
scenarios for shipbuilding demand
between now and 2023.
The Base Case Projection indicates that
the newbuilding requirement to satisfy
incremental increases in ship demand and
the need to replace scrapped ships to 2013
would amount to 97 million CGT, while the
current orderbook and scheduled deliveries
for this period is double that amount.
The projected newbuilding requirement
rises to 120 million CGT over the period
from 2014 to 2018 and to 139 million CGT
up to 2023.
But for the moment, dry bulk provides a
good example of the problems confronting
shipbuilding and shipping alike.
According to the company's data, at the
beginning of 2009 there were 6,864 bulk
carriers in service, with a combined
deadweight of 422 million tonnes. Despite
a steady stream of newbuildings, the fleet is
old with an average age of 16 years.
Although most tonnage will not be
scrapped at least until it reaches 30 years of
age, there is already a considerable number
of ships in excess of 20 years of age.
"Given the severe downturn in the dry
bulk freight market, scrapping in this
sector can be expected to pick up and in
the period to 2013 total removals could
well be in the order of 60+ million DWT,"
Furthermore, if dry bulk trades were to
grow at the rates seen in the period
2000-08, it would generate incremental
new ship demand for approximately 100
million DWT over a five-year period.
However, Drewry's latest projections
suggest that over the next five years trade
growth is likely to generate new demand
closer to 50 million DWT.
Drewry points to a dangerous glut on orderbooks
Shipbuilding: a challenge for the entire industry
Representatives of the container and bulker sectors met at a
Hong Kong Shipowners panel recently to reveal vastly
differing outlooks on their respective sectors.
While representatives from the container sector were only
cautiously optimistic about their sector's future, those from the
bulk industry were more unreserved.
Speaking at the Hong Kong Shipowners' Association luncheon
at the Island Shangri-la Hotel, CMA CGM Vice President Hans
Meurs said: "Ships are fuller now, but that is because there is so
much capacity being taken out of service. We are still 25 percent
down. We have not recovered. We are looking at a bleak horizon."
More cheerful was bulker sector spokesman Harry Banga, Vice
Chairman of the Noble Group, which manages the flow of raw
materials from source to destination, who saw the demand for raw
materials in China holding steady, and driving domestic production.
"Social instability worries the government of China, more so
than profits and the state of banks. We have de-coupled from the
recession elsewhere," he said. Mr Banga was observed to be more
optimistic about the sector's future than other panelists present.
Views on industry future mixed
at Hong Kong Shipowners panel
SHIPS AND SHIPPING August 2009 25
Bocimar International has sold two bulkers -- the 'Mineral
Libin' and the 'Mineral Azalea'.
The Capesize vessel 'Mineral Libin' was built in 2006. The sale
price of the 174,000DWT vessel was US$53 million and delivery
will be between August 2009 and April 2010. According to a
statement by Bocimar, the sale involved a capital loss of about
Bocimar also sold its 1999-built 171,200DWT 'Mineral
Azalea' for US$45.1 million. Delivery will be in the third
quarter of this year.
Bocimar arranges sale of two bulkers
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